Sri Lanka is heading for the crucial presidential elections on September 21. Given its strategic location, the interests in the Indo-Pacific, and China’s growing influence in the South Asian region, have made the island nation geopolitically more important than before.
The ambassadors of influential countries like the US, India, China, Australia and Japan, have already had a series of meetings in Sri Lanka with the popular candidates in the presidential race, analysing their strengths and weaknesses and how the country’s politics will change when they are in power.
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Sri Lanka’s pro-China approach became evident when the Rajapaksas were in power. The Chinese loan to fund projects, including the controversial port city Colombo, the Hambantota port, the Mattala International Airport and the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, deepened Sri Lanka’s debt crisis, which led to the ouster of the Rajapaksas. The ouster of president Gotabaya Rajapaksa was followed by their friend Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is known for his pro-West and pro-Japan approach, taking over as the president. He, however, had to stay friendly with every foreign force, given the economic situation of Sri Lanka.
Wickremesinghe pursues a multi-aligned approach with the foreign powers, he continues to be pro-West despite his closeness to India in the past two years after the uprising—thanks to India’s interventions in terms of credit lines to advocate economic reforms, Indian investments and security aspect. Wickremesinghe has also got investments from Japan with regard to the light railway, and expanding the international airport in Colombo. “Ranil’s neo-liberal approach might seem beneficial. But it hasn’t liberated the people from the economic crisis. People's desperation is coming from the bottom because of their inability to make ends meet. There were three million people who were below poverty before 2022 and it has increased to seven million people now. It is almost a third of this country's total population,” Harsha Desilva, a senior leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which is headed by Sajith Premadasa, told THE WEEK.
While Wickremesinghe still sticks to his pro-west, pro-Japan ideas, there is a fear among the people that Anura Kumara Dissanayaka will be pro-china, given his Marxist, Leninist leanings in the past. Though Dissanayaka and his core team of people in the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-National People's Power (NPP) combine appear to have shed their Marxist, Leninist and Leftist ideologies, the two insurgencies in the past - 1971 and 1987, led by the JVP - instills fear in the minds of the people.
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Incidentally, JVP’s ideological leanings with China have fuelled suspicions about China funding his campaigns since 2021, including the people uprising. Sources say that Dissanayaka, in the past two years, extensively travelled out of Sri Lanka getting close to some of the international super powers. During his travels, he had also reached out to the businessmen in the Sri Lankan diaspora asking them to invest in the country. JVP, in its manifesto, says that it “will invite foreign companies into sectors like renewable energy, where we don't have the capacity to invest large amounts of capital”. Incidentally, in the past two weeks when the foreign diplomats in Sri Lanka caught up with all the presidential aspirants, Dissanayaka, according to sources, did not send out a positive reply to Russian and Chinese diplomats, which in a way had set yet another debate in the political scene in Colombo.
“Our party or our leader wants to engage with India. India is certainly our neighbour and a superpower. Recently, we were invited by India for an agricultural summit. We visited Delhi and Kerala. Our leader wants to deal with all the major powers to stabilise the Sri Lankan economy,” Professor Anil Jayantha, one of the national executive committee members of NPP told THE WEEK. Sources say that during his visit to India, Dissanayaka had assured that if elected to power, Sri Lanka will maintain cordial relationship with India in terms of national security and defence.
India doesn’t want to antagonise or upset Dissanayaka, as he has the support of the majority Sinhalese and the working class. Sources say that India closely watches every move by Dissanayaka and is also concerned that a JVP victory in the election might lead to economic uncertainties and signal a stark political realignment in the island.
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India’s concerns about his Left leanings and pro-China links and also the Sinhala majoritarian support, has made India look at Premadasa as a promising friend in the neighbourhood. “ I am a strong advocate of a permanent seat for India in the UN Security Council,” Premadasa said in an exclusive interview to THE WEEK. Premadasa, who finished second in the race in 2109, already has the support of the Tamils who constitute 11 per cent of the total electorate in Sri Lanka. And a large chunk of the hill country Tamils, also back him. “It may seem that everything is fine in Sri Lanka if you look at us being in Colombo. The country is reeling under the worst crisis. The people need a change. With the help of India, we were able to get housing schemes for the hill country Tamils. If Sajith is elected, I am confident that he will continue to engage with India and we can get help for welfare projects,” Palani Digambaram, MP from Tamil Progressive Alliance, told THE WEEK.
As a leader preferred by a percentage of the Colombo elites, the Sinhala majority and also a portion of the working class, Premadasa promises to address issues of security, resolving economic crises and improving the lives of ordinary people.
On the other hand, given the economic conditions and the financial instability, Premadasa is looked at as a candidate who will balance relations with major powers like India, China and America and also work with the West.